By: Steve Pfaff, National Weather Service
The 2016 hurricane season was defined by 15 named storms with Hurricane Matthew causing destruction from the Caribbean to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Last year was the costliest season since 2012 and losses exceeded $16 billion. The 2016 hurricane season was also the deadliest since 2008 with more than 700 fatalities (most associated with Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean). There were many lessons learned with Hurricane Matthew some new and some old – including people taking risks driving through flooded roadways. In fact, 18 of the 26 deaths (69%) caused by Matthew in the U.S. were vehicular related. In the NWS Wilmington NC area of responsibility there were 6 fatalities as a result of the inland flooding and 5 of those were in vehicles swept off the roadway. Matthew once again proved that hurricanes are just not coastal storms and the impacts they pose can be far reaching and well inland. As a result, the level of hurricane education, outreach, mitigation, and planning for inland areas must match the efforts typified by coastal locations.
For the 2017 hurricane season there are some changes to the NWS’s tropical program including operational Storm Surge Warnings and Watches and the ability for forecasters to raise Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches/Warnings before the formation of a named storm that develops near the coast. In addition, Extreme Wind Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings will be included in Wireless Emergency Alerts (weather text messages sent to smart phones) system, and a new graphic for the arrival of tropical storm force winds graphics will be generated. These new procedures and tools will provide more flexibility for National Hurricane Center Specialists, give Emergency Managers the ability to determine the arrival of strong winds, and inform the public of extreme wind and storm surge warning impacts.
Lastly, NOAA’s 2017 Hurricane calls for an 80% chance of a near or above normal year regarding the number of storms that may form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. In fact this year’s outlook includes 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). While these forecasts do a great job in garnering attention and begin hurricane preparation dialogue they can have unintended consequences which can negatively affect the public’s level of preparedness. For instance, if a future hurricane outlook is for a below normal year it does not mean that we don’t need to prepare, or lower our awareness. After all, these outlooks are not impact forecasts – they are purely a forecast regarding the number of storms. All it takes is one! We need to prepare each year as if it is going to be the year we are impacted by a devastating hurricane. If not, then we are not doing our part to build resilient communities across the Carolinas.
Are you prepared for Hurricane season? For safety information & more, visit: nhc.noaa.gov/prepare
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