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On Wednesday, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper announced a coronavirus hotspot in Orange County, North Carolina at a long-term care facility. The governor and the NC Coronavirus Task Force explained a new plan for long-term care facilities.

“We are going to do all we can for you and your patients,” Gov. Cooper commented to the long-term facilities in the state as he thanked them for their service.

“We’ve seen a number of outbreaks in congregate settings. Currently, there are 21 outbreaks across the state, meaning two or more people have tested positive in a congregate setting. 18 of those outbreaks are in long-term care settings,” Cooper added.

Patients in long term care facilities with COVID-19 (coronavirus) will be isolated. Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen stated, “We have been working with our partners-the industry associations, our health departments, and the facilities – on their prevention and response actions.”

She continued, “We already issued an earlier order which limited all visitors except in extreme end-of-life situations. We will also codify additional directives to help prevent further outbreaks.

On Tuesday, the governor said he is working on an executive order to enact more social distancing at essential retailers.

He explained some retails are limiting the number of persons in the store, having the customers wait in a line, with markers having people stand six feet apart.

Today, Gov. Cooper stated, “We think it needs to be across the board in retailers across the state. We will be issuing an Executive Order to make this more uniform across the state.”

“It will likely be tomorrow,” he added.

North Carolina Department of Health & Human Services Secretary stated, “Going out for a non-essential reason may feel harmless to you if you’re not having symptoms, but if you have the virus you could set off a chain reaction unknowingly bypassing the virus off to even just a handful of people. They will pass it on to more people.”

A collection of North Carolina experts released a composite modeling forecast looking at how COVID-19 could affect North Carolina in the coming months. The models, constructed by experts from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Duke University, RTI International, and others reinforced the need for limiting personal contact to slow the spread of COVID-19 and ensure that health care is there for people who need it.

“We have life-changing decisions before us and North Carolina is fortunate to have world-class experts who can help our state as we continue battling the coronavirus,” said Governor Roy Cooper. “Modeling is one tool that helps us prepare for this fight and it shows we will save lives if we stay home and keep our social distance right now.”

“The modeling affirms that the actions we take now will determine how this virus will impact North Carolina in the weeks and months to come,” said NC Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Mandy Cohen, MD. “We need to continue to do everything in our power so that fewer people get sick at the same time, while also surging the capacity of our health care system so those that do need hospital care will have it. Please stay home now to save lives.”

Read the modeling team’s full brief.

The composite model found that social distancing policies with effectiveness similar to those currently in place in North Carolina will help lower the likelihood of the healthcare system becoming overloaded with a spike of many COVID-19 patients all at the same time. However, ending all social distancing at the end of April leads to a “greater than 50 percent probability that acute care and ICU bed capacity will be outstripped… as soon as Memorial Day.”

According to the model, hospital surge to create more available bed space could provide some help, but not enough to help hospitals meet demand if all social distancing efforts were ended.

If all social distancing were to stop at the end of April, the model estimates that roughly 750,000 North Carolinians could be infected by June 1. On the other hand, if some form of effective social distancing remains in place after April, that number is lowered by half a million to an estimated 250,000 people. That’s because social distancing lowers the number of people that one person will infect.

The group of experts are continuing to run models using information from other states and countries and intends to release further data as it becomes available.

North Carolina health experts involved with this modeling forecast are listed below:

Bradley Adams, MS. Managing Actuary, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of NC
Rachael Billock, MSPH, PhD Candidate. Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Alex Breskin, PhD. Senior Epidemiologist, NoviSci, Inc.
Alan Brookhart, PhD. Chief Scientist, NoviSci, Inc., Professor, Duke School of Medicine
Hilary Campbell, PharmD, JD. Research Associate, Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy
Scott Heiser, MPH. Senior Manager, Health Care and Medical Expense Strategy, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of NC
Mark Holmes, PhD. Professor, Health Policy & Mgmt., Director, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Service Research
Sara Levintow, PhD, MSPH. Epidemiologist, NoviSci, Inc., Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, UNC
Pia D. M. MacDonald, PhD, MPH, CPH. Senior Epidemiologist, RTI International
Aaron McKethan, PhD. CEO, NoviSci, Inc., Adjunct Professor, Duke School of Medicine, Senior Policy Fellow, Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy
Kimberly Powers, PhD. Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Gillings Global School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill