- There is an increasing chance that southeast NC and northeast SC will see impacts from Ian by the end of the week, but the magnitude of impacts will greatly depend on the eventual track of the storm.
- As moisture from Ian spreads northward and interacts with a coastal front that is expected to be in the vicinity, the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase.
- Initial storm total rainfall estimates could exceed 6 to 8 inches across most areas with isolated higher amounts.
- The large fetch of wind between Ian and large high pressure to the north will result in persistent onshore flow which will lead to coastal flooding. Rough surf and beach erosion are also possible as a result of the wave action along the shoreline.
- There is also a potential for isolated tornadoes this weekend.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”
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